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U.S. President Donald Trump this week will unveil a budget expected to massively increase military spending while slashing other federal programs.

The proposal, set to be released Thursday, will offer the most detailed look yet at how Trump intends to move ahead with his so-called “America First” policy.

The budget will likely face significant opposition in Congress, where lawmakers are already bickering over a plan to overhaul the nation’s health care program.

Many of Trump’s fellow Republicans support his plan for a larger military; but, unlike Trump, some want to pay for it by cutting Social Security and Medicare – the two largest federal programs.

Democrats are alarmed about the entire proposal, particularly his plan to cut domestic government programs aimed at protecting the environment and helping the poor.

State Dept., foreign aid cuts

Lawmakers in both parties have also expressed concerns about Trump’s steep proposed cuts to the State Department and foreign aid budgets – a move they say will reduce U.S. influence abroad.

White House officials point out the president’s proposals are only a blueprint and that ultimately Congress must agree on a final budget, but they insist difficult decisions must be made.

“Unfortunately, we have no alternative but to reinvest in our military and make ourselves a military power once again,” White House National Economic Council Director Gary Cohn told Fox News Sunday.

“It’s no different than every other family in America that has to make the tough decisions when they need to spend money somewhere, they have to cut it from somewhere else,” Cohn said.

Defense spending

In a blueprint released last month, White House officials said Trump intends to boost the military budget by $54 billion – one of the largest ever increases in national defense spending. This week’s proposal will outline how the president intends to pay for it.

According to budget documents leaked to the media, Trump will offset the military costs with far-reaching reductions in discretionary spending — the part of the budget that pays for various federal government agencies.

Trump is reportedly considering slashing up to 25 percent of the Environmental Protection Agency budget, 30 percent of the Energy Department budget, and 37 percent of the State Department and foreign aid budget.

Reduction in federal workforce

If passed, those cuts would result in a massive reduction of the federal government workforce, which Trump and his fellow Republicans have long said is bloated and inefficient. It is not clear, however, whether Trump’s plans would actually fulfill his campaign promise to reduce the national debt.

That won’t be clear until May, when the White House releases its plans to reform the tax code and its proposals for mandatory spending, which covers existing programs like Medicare and Social Security.

Trump has said it is not politically possible to reduce spending on Medicare and Social Security – which together account for nearly 40 percent of the federal budget. He is also considering a $1 trillion infrastructure plan to upgrade the country’s roads, airports and rail lines.

According to most analysts, that means Trump will likely continue to run a budget deficit.

The federal debt is expected to grow by nearly $10 trillion over the next decade, according to a recent projection by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office.

 
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U.S. chipmaker Intel agreed to buy driverless technology firm Mobileye for $15.3 billion on Monday, positioning itself for a dominant role in the autonomous-driving sector after missing the market for mobile phones.

The $63.54 per share cash deal is the biggest technology takeover in Israel’s history and the largest purchase of a company solely focused on the self-driving sector.

Intel will integrate its automated driving group with Mobileye’s operations, with the combined entity being run by Mobileye Chairman Amnon Shashua from Israel.

Intel Chief Executive Brian Krzanich said the acquisition, which unites Intel’s processors with Mobileye’s computer vision, was akin to merging the “eyes of the autonomous car with the intelligent brain that actually drives the car.”

Mobileye accounts for 70 percent of the global market for driver-assistance and anti-collision systems. It employs 660 people and had adjusted net income of $173.3 million last year.

Intel said it expected the transaction to close within the next nine months and to immediately boost its non-GAAP earnings per share and free cash flow.

The price represents a premium of around 33 percent to Mobileye’s Friday closing price of $47 a share.

“It’s an area where the company (Intel) has had very little presence – the automotive market, and so this is a tremendous opportunity for them to get into a market that has significant growth opportunities,” said Betsy Van Hees, an analyst at Loop Capital Markets who has a “buy” rating on Intel shares.

“Mobileye’s technology is very critical … The price seems fair,” she added.

Because Mobileye’s Shashua will remain in charge and the combined entity will be based in Israel, analysts said they expected it to be far more difficult for rivals to mount a counter offer for Mobileye.

Shashua and two other senior Mobileye executives stand to do well by the deal: together they own nearly 7 percent of the company. Shmuel Harlap, Israel’s biggest car importer and one of Mobileye’s earliest investors, also holds a 7 percent stake.

Yossi Vardi, seen as the godfather of Israeli high-tech, said the deal was a big endorsement of the whole sector.

“I’m sure that this … will be a very important impetus to create a whole industry related to autonomous and connected vehicles (in the country),” he said.

Battle for self-control

Automakers and their suppliers have been expanding alliances in the race to develop self-driving cars, a sector that once seemed a science-fiction dream but is drawing closer to reality month after month.

Mobileye and Intel are already collaborating with German automaker BMW on a project to put a fleet of around 40 self-driving test vehicles on the road in the second half of this year.

At the same time, Mobileye has teamed up with Intel for its fifth-generation of chips that will be used in fully autonomous vehicles that are scheduled for delivery around 2021.

While Intel is known for hardware chips and Mobileye for collision detection software, their merger promises to create the most complete portfolio of technologies needed for driverless vehicles, including cameras, sensor chips, in-car networking, roadway mapping, machine learning and cloud software, as well as the data-centres needed to manage all the data involved.

Last October, Qualcomm announced a $47 billion deal to acquire the Netherlands’ NXP, the largest automotive chip supplier, putting pressure on other chipmakers seeking to make inroads into the market for autonomous driving components, including Intel, Mobileye and rival NVIDIA.

The Qualcomm-NXP deal, which will create the industry’s largest portfolio of sensors, networking and other elements vital to autonomous driving, is expected to close later in 2017, subject to regulatory and shareholder approvals.

For a dozen years, Mobileye has relied on Franco-Italian chipmaker STMicroelectronics to produce chips that the Israeli company sells to many of the world’s top automakers for its current, third-generation of driver-assistance systems.

Mobileye’s relationships with automakers, leading suppliers and STMicroelectronics will continue uninterrupted, the companies said in their statement, and Mobileye’s current product roadmap will not be affected.

Founded in 1999, Mobileye made its mission to reduce vehicle injuries and fatalities. After receiving an investment of $130 million from Goldman Sachs in 2007, it listed on the New York Stock Exchange in 2014.
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Vietnam will test U.S. President Donald Trump’s openness to one-on-one trade deals as it starts nudging Washington for an eventual agreement to replace its role in the defunct Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP).

Official media outlets in Vietnam say Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc told an American business delegation last week he was ready to visit the United States, and that he hoped to meet Trump for a discussion about trade, among other topics.

Vietnam depends heavily on factory exports, which are about 19 percent of a $200 billion economy.

“A trade agreement with the U.S., a very large market, would certainly bring some benefits, that’s clear,” said Marie Diron, senior vice president at Moody’s Investors Service in Singapore. “It would be about, kind of about anchoring these export markets with a trade agreement in place.”

Trump is not expected to prioritize free trade deals in the short term, analysts say, but he may someday consider them. Trade deals usually obligate signatories to cut tariffs on each other’s good or services.  

US companies eye Vietnam market

Nguyen may have a chance at working out a trade deal with the United States because American firms selling products such as fast food, mobile phones and even insurance want more access to Vietnam’s fast-growing middle class.

More than one-third of the country’s roughly 93 million people will be middle class or higher by 2020, according to a Boston Consulting Group study.

“You would expect the direction of goods coming from Vietnam to the U.S. picking up more sharply than the other way around,” said Rahul Bajoria, a regional economist with Barclays in Singapore.

But, he said, “it could be the case there might be some pressure from the large [American] industrial manufacturers like the aircraft manufacturers or train companies. All of them may be much more interested in exporting to Vietnam.”

The United States is Vietnam’s top export market, giving the Asian country a trade surplus last year, with exports worth $38.1 billion and imports of $8.7 billion.

But in January, imports increased 14.6 percent, pointing to a possible soft spot in Vietnam for Western brands. American names such as Apple, Dell and Starbucks are easy to find in cities such as the financial center Ho Chi Minh City.

“The U.S. could export to Vietnam, to a market that’s growing so fast, with 90 plus million people who are very brand conscious, where Western brands have a very high reputation,” said Vojislav Milenkovic, analyst with the business advisory BDG Insights in Ho Chi Minh City.

“You can see this every day on the street. You can see that people are trying to save and to buy high-quality products from the foreign countries,” he said.

But Vietnamese consumers still earn just half of their counterparts in China, Diron said. “For some companies, that could be a hurdle,” she said. China’s market is also much larger that Vietnam’s.

End of TPP

Leaders in Hanoi had hoped the TPP would give them access to the U.S. market plus 10 other countries, including Japan. Trump withdrew the United States from the TPP in January, saying it would hurt the country.

Because of the size of the U.S. economy, Trump’s withdrawal made it effectively impossible for other countries to keep the TPP alive.

Trump said shortly after taking office he could consider one-on-one free trade agreements instead of regional ones.

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has said he is open to the idea of a bilateral trade pact with the United States, and members of the U.S. Congress advocate an agreement with Britain.

In a phone call after his election in November, Trump told Nguyen he wanted to strengthen ties with Vietnam and that he was willing to meet in the United States.

In exchange for trade favors, Trump might ask Vietnam to support the U.S. presence in the South China Sea where the United States is trying to resist Chinese maritime expansion, said Oscar Mussons, international business advisory associate with the Dezan Shira & Associates consultancy in Ho Chi Minh City.

Vietnam may need to wait out most of Trump’s current term before getting any trade deals, Bajoria cautioned.

Any deal takes time to negotiate, he said, and the U.S. government may try first to build its relations with China, the world’s number two economy after the United States. “I don’t think there’s scope for an FTA over the next 12 months,” Bajoria said.

Since Trump was elected, Vietnamese leaders afraid that the TPP would die began looking instead to other trade deals.

An agreement reached with the European Union in 2015 is due to take effect next year if it clears hurdles in the European bloc’s parliament.

China is also keen to bolster trade ties, but Vietnam hopes to avoid dependence on the long-time political rival that’s known for unloading cheap mass-produced goods in Vietnam at prices lower than what local companies can charge.
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